Early Warning Report, Romania
7/2002
The latest issue (November/2002) of the monthly national Early Warning Report
produced by the Romanian Academic Society (SAR), an independent think tank based
in Bucharest, has just been released. You can find it, as well as other back
issues, at the following addresses: www.sar.org.ro/ewr.htm http://www.undp.ro/ewr.htm
Alternatively, we can email you the zipped file (about 300k) upon request. EWR
is a project initiated and financed by UNDP, aimed at providing the Romanian
government with objective advice from independent sources. The goal of the
program is to monitor the socio-political and economic developments in order to
identify the situations with crisis potential. UNDP commissioned this series of
monthly reports to SAR beginning with May 2001. Our team of experts monitor and
analyze on a permanent basis the developments in four main areas: Economy,
Society, Politics and Rule of Law. You can find below a summary of the topics
included.
Alina Mungiu Pippidi, President
Sorin Ionita, Director
Romanian Academic Society (SAR)
15 Petofi Sandor, Bucharest 1
+40-1-222-1868 office@sar.org.ro
EWR Romania, 7/2002, November Abstract The Economy Section analyses the assumptions and the structure of the
Public Budget draft for 2003, highlighting the urgent need to improve tax
collection and to increase the administrative capacity to absorb the EU funds.
The Government has recently launched a National Anti-poverty programme, which
integrates present and new policies for poverty alleviation. While recognizing
the merits of the programme, the Social Section also takes a closer look at
implementation challenges. It highlights among other things, the need to give a
more prominent decision-making role and political clout to the Anti-Poverty
Commission.
A newly adopted party registration law places Romania among the countries in
Central and Eastern Europe with the most restrictive regulations for setting up
such political organizations. The measure, which was intended to help cleaning
Romania's political stage from the myriad of 'parasite' parties, is wrong both
from the legal and from the political viewpoint, argues the Politics Section.
The President should take into account the objections coming from civil society
and should return this law to Parliament.
While Romania and Bulgaria lag behind other candidate countries in the EU
accession process, they have undeniable merits in peacefully managing their
minority issues and deserve more credit for this. The Regional Section argues in
favor of more EU attention and support for these countries as a way to stabilize
the entire SEE region. It also includes a critical analysis of the recent
OSCE-sponsored plan to solve the conflict between Moldova and the breakaway
Transnistrian Republic.
You receive this from EuroAtlantic Club's NATMINET - distributing info on
national minorities in Romania and on Romanian minorities in neighboring
countries.
6/2002, September
Abstract
Romania's macro-economic performance has been surprisingly good over the last
two years. However, the 'Economy' section warns against some of the threats to
the current economic recovery. The accumulation of soft credits in the energy
sector presents the risk of generating Bancorex-type collapses. Unless public
utility companies undergo deep restructuring, the energy sector will continue to
plague the economy (low productivity, high real wages) and is likely to stifle
its growth. The Government should take determined actions in this respect,
sooner rather than later.
Equally in the Economy section, it is argued that the planned privatization of
Romania's largest bank (BCR) and of its national oil company (Petrom) should be
handled with special care to avoid unintended consequences. These are not just
regular privatization deals, but are linked with Romania's overall economic
perspectives for years to come. The shortcomings of the new Labor Code, and its
damaging potential to the economy, are discussed in the 'Social' section, which
also focuses on the problems of the institutionalized child-care system.
The 'Politics' section discusses the challenges and opportunities that the
likely invitation to join NATO at the Prague summit bring to Romania. Getting
the invitation is just a new beginning, not the end for Romania's efforts to
prepare for full NATO membership. On a controversial matter, the EWR considers
that Romania's decision to sign a bilateral treaty that exempts the US military
from prosecution by the International War Crimes Tribunal was the wisest
decision under the circumstances.
Click on this link in order to download the pdf file containing the report (you
need Adobe Acrobat Reader(c) in order to open this file):
http://www.sar.org.ro/ewrpdf/ewr6ro2002.pdf
